Well, this sure is interesting! Last Saturday, I was probably one of many Ohio State fans who thought the Buckeyes' chances of making the College Football Playoff were dead and very nearly buried after a downright hideous loss to Michigan.
But what a difference a week makes! As a fan who wants to see the four best teams in the country compete for a National Championship, I still genuinely struggle with Ohio State possibly sneaking into the Playoff based on the help they got from losses by USC and TCU in their respective conference championship games. But here we are.
The Committee looks at several different things when choosing the Top 4. They look at the "eye test" or how strong or dominant a team looks throughout the season. They also look at a team's resume and body of work (quality wins, bad losses). And lastly, even though they won't ever say it, I will: They look at the teams and matchups which will bring in the most money and television ratings from the fans who will travel, to the fans who will watch at home. That plays a bigger part in the selection process than most people would care to admit.
So, who will be selected come noon tomorrow? I believe three of the four spots are already locked up. Georgia handled LSU in the SEC Championship game, 50-30. They'll roll into the Playoff as the clear and undisputed #1 at 13-0.
At #2, I would put Michigan. Barring an absolute shocker or meltdown against Purdue tonight, the Wolverines will finish the season undefeated at 13-0 and champions of the Big Ten Conference. And even though their star running back Blake Corum is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, it would be unfair for the Committee to punish them for something that's out of their control such as that.
I still believe TCU will make it in as well, even with a 31-28 loss to a three-loss Kansas State team in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Horned Frogs would've likely been out had then-#4 USC taken care of business in the PAC-12 Championship against Utah. But the Trojans' Playoff hopes, and Caleb Williams' Heisman campaign likely crashed to Earth with a thud thanks to a 47-24 drubbing by the Utes.
So, as it has in years past, it all comes down to three prospective teams fighting for the fourth open Playoff spot. The teams jockeying for position in the Playoff field? Ohio State, Alabama and Tennessee. Let's take a look at each one, and then I'll make my final prediction of what will happen when we all tune in to ESPN at 12 noon tomorrow on Selection Sunday.
#5 Ohio State (11-1)
Key Loss: vs. #2 Michigan, 45-23.
Minus the ugly loss in the season finale against Michigan, Ohio State had looked pretty consistent all year long. The only knock I had on the Buckeyes until last week's loss? It took them too long to get into a rhythm, start clicking, and playing football at the high level that fans and pundits expect. I believe the Buckeyes passed the "eye test" part of the process. The question is: Will the Committee punish Ohio State for the loss to Michigan by keeping them out in spite of the chaos?
In terms of schedule, this is probably the weakest part of Ohio State's case to make the College Football Playoff. Yes, the Buckeyes do have two key wins over solid Penn State and Notre Dame teams. Plus the Irish and Nittany Lions have only looked better as the season has played out. But nationally, Ohio State's strength of schedule is ranked 55th.
For the final, and perhaps strongest part of Ohio State's case for making the Playoff, we come down to logic and past precedent. Never in the eight-year history of the College Football Playoff, has there ever been a two-loss team. And in order for there to be one, the Committee would have to break precedent, and then have a really convincing argument for doing so. I don't see them doing that here. Alabama and Tennessee both have two losses, and they're all on similar footing with Ohio State in terms of not being conference champions.
Next, we move to a perennial powerhouse in #6 Alabama.
#6 Alabama (10-2)
You know a team is a true powerhouse when finishing a season 10-2 is considered a "down year." But this is probably Nick Saban's worst team at Alabama in recent memory, even though they are still very solid.
The two biggest games that could've bolstered their case for the Playoff were LSU and Tennessee. Unfortunately for Bama, LSU head coach Brian Kelly went riverboat gambler and came up big at home in Death Valley, and Josh Heupel and the Vols knocked them off in what may be the loudest place in the country in Neyland Stadium on a last-second field goal.
The two strikes I see against the Crimson Tide though, aside from the losses themselves, are the eye test, and the lack of any true quality wins on the schedule apart from maybe Mississippi State. Not only that, the wins they did get, particularly against Arkansas, Florida and Kentucky, came against teams that have looked worse than expected as the regular season has wrapped up. Add all these things together, and it just may keep Alabama out of the Playoff, a truly rare occurrence in the Nick Saban era.
The only way they get in? Seemingly on past reputation. Committee Chairman Boo Corrigan has said that he and the other people making the final decision tomorrow will guard against choosing a team based solely on that. We'll see if he keeps his word.
#7 Tennessee (10-2)
Key Losses: #1 Georgia, 27-13, South Carolina, 63-38
I think Tennessee is the least likely of the three remaining teams fighting for that last open spot to make it. Are the Vols a solid team? Yes. Even with the season-ending injury suffered by star quarterback Hendon Hooker, Tennessee could still be a tough out for whoever they play next.
But similar to Alabama, a few of the other wins I didn't list came against teams that may have looked good earlier in the season, but have dropped off significantly since. Add the fact that Tennessee just doesn't seem as explosive without Hooker under center, and the fact that they have two losses, something tells me that's enough to keep the Volunteers out of the Playoff this time around. But head coach Josh Heupel definitely has the folks in Knoxville excited, and Tennessee football may be headed for a run of success they haven't seen since the days of Peyton Manning and Phillip Fulmer in the mid to late 1990s!
Final Prediction
This is the beauty of the College Football Playoff. Even though we can make educated guesses on what the Committee will do starting noon tomorrow, we really have no absolute certainty about who they'll choose, or where they'll rank the teams.
I've been going crazy all day as I've watched this chaos unfold. But I think it's time to make my picks.
#1. Georgia
#2. Michigan
#3. TCU
#4 Ohio State
First two out:
#5 Alabama
#6 Tennessee
While I desperately want to see a rematch with Michigan, and thought that there was a great chance of it happening as I was researching for this article, I now think that the Committee will keep TCU where they are. Why would they punish the Horned Frogs for losing a close, conference championship game, and give the Buckeyes the bump up to #3 even though they didn't play in the Big Ten Championship Game?
The only logical reason the Committee would even think of doing this? Money. An Ohio State/Michigan rematch in the College Football Playoff would make obscene amounts of money, and be one of the most watched college football games in history. It'll be interesting to see if they give in to the pressure of doing that. And money does talk. But for now, I would just be happy to see Ohio State make it into the Playoff.
If this is indeed the case tomorrow, I'm happy Ohio State makes it. But the Buckeyes would then have the unenviable task of trying to take down an extremely tough Georgia Bulldogs team. They're solid everywhere. But that's why the Committee has these teams play the games. Champions aren't chosen on reputation alone.
And if Ohio State were to shock the college football world by stunning Georgia, perhaps the greatest college football game in history would be right around the corner: A rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, with a National Championship, and eternal bragging rights at stake!
We'll just have to wait and see, folks. All I know is, every pair of eyes in Columbus, and around the State of Ohio, is going to be glued to the TV, as the Committee answers college football's million-dollar question: Who's In?
Picture Credit: buckeyehuddle.com, 1000logos.net, wallpapercave.com, larrybrownsports.com,
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